Bookmaker Odds

At the time of writing the bookies have the Tigers comfortable 15.5 point favourites over the Bombers who are fighting to keep their slim finals hopes alive. With the over/under at 166.5, the Tigers have an implied total of 91.

The game is being played at the home of football the MCG where Richmond have a 12-0 record so far in 2018. Dusty Martin is the highest averaging Tiger there over the last 5 with an average of 95.4 which is +5.5 on his season average throughout that time. The best +/- however belongs to Shane Edwards (+16.1) whose returned scores of 111, 61, 86, 90 & 65 over that time period. Bachar Houli is another one that seems to find an extra few touches while playing at the MCG with a +/- of +11.3.

No Tigers average 100 at the MCG, but in contrast the Bombers have 3 players averaging that mark or more over their last 5 there.

  • Devon Smith 117.8 [+13.3] – 117, 96, 129, 150 & 97
  • Zach Merrett 109.8 [+8.5] – 81, 108, 102, 124 & 134
  • David Zaharakis 100.0 [+4.8] – 109, 83, 113, 133 & 62

In the case of David Zaharakis his ownership is likely to be depressed due to his recent run of form (96, 62 & 68). This could be an opportunity to capitalise as before getting injured in round 11 he was averaging 109.2 from 10 games with 7x 100’s.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Position

Jack Riewoldt is coming off a ten goal return last week that netted him 192 points and has him ranked as the fourth best averaging key forward in the game behind Westhoff, McDonald and Franklin. However, you may want to consider alternatives this round with Essendon ranking dead last in points conceded to the oppositions top ranked key forward over the last 5 weeks.

Since round 17 Richmond are ranked 4th in the competition for +/- points conceded to the opposition’s top 3 midfielders while Essendon are ranked 16th. Essendon have two of the top 18 ranked midfielders (Zach Merrett & Dyson Heppell) based on fantasy average in 2018 and based on these numbers they should continue to score well this week. In the case of Zach Merrett he heads into this game with a 5 round average of 120.4 (+19.1 on season average) and a four game streak of 100’s vs the Tigers with 115, 152, 101 & 102.

Prestia Hamstrung?

Dion Prestia has missed 10 games so far in 2018 and he’ll miss again this week with a hamstring injury. In those games where Prestia has missed this year Josh Caddy has exceeded his season average in 8 of them. His possession average remains fairly constant with 17 disposals but his average inside 50’s goes from 2.7 to 4.2 which suggests he may spend a little bit more time up the ground. His tackle count also doubles from 2.2 to 4.4 further suggesting he may spend more time around the ball.

The Tigers have also shelved captain Trent Cotchin and fellow midfielder Kane Lambert for the matchup vs Essendon which provides further opportunity for Caddy to increase time in the midfield while the younger brigade who have come in spend more time up forward.

Optimal Lineup Simulation

We offer not just player projections but also floor and ceiling projections for each player. Using these projection ranges for each player we’ve run 10,000 simulations and calculated the optimal scoring lineup. The tables below show the five most common players in these optimal lineups for both Draftstars and Moneyball.

Team % Player Name Salary Proj +/-
52% Tom Bellchambers $11520 80.2 +1.1
51% Dustin Martin $12800 96.6 +9.9
48% Toby Nankervis $12780 86.3 -0.3
48% Travis Colyer $8200 63.0 +3.7
38% Brendon Goddard $10560 74.8 +1.4
Team % Player Name Salary Proj +/-
53% Toby Nankervis $7800 86.3 +1.5
50% Tom Bellchambers $7300 80.2 -0.1
40% Jack Riewoldt $7400 89.3 +8.1
36% Jack Graham $5300 68.4 +6.3
29% David Myers $7100 80.8 +2.3