Our AFL Gamelogs are complete back to the start of the 2016 season including all finals matches played. The gamelogs give a detailed breakdown of each player’s stats as well as the opponent, ground and match result. Gamelogs are found across many sites, however, we’ve added some extra functionality in ours to allow you to dig deeper into player trends.
YR, RD, Player Name, TM & Ground – pretty self-explanatory
OPP – opponent
K, H, M – kicks, handballs, marks
T, HO – tackles, hit-outs
FF, FA – free kicks for, free kicks against
G, B – goals, behinds
FP – fantasy points (this scoring applies to Moneyball, Draftstars, PlayON and season long formats like AFL Fantasy and Real Dream Team)
TOG – percentage time on ground
W/L – match result (win/loss/draw)
Margin – final margin of match (negative value infers a win which aligns with bookmaker line markets)
Score – team’s match score
Examples of Use
Historical Performance vs Opponent or at Ground
Some players have a history of scoring well against specific opponents and using our tool it’s quick and easy to extract the game data for these scenarios. For example, it’s common knowledge that Tom Mitchell loves to play Collingwood and by simply entering the player’s name in the text filter and selecting Collingwood as the opponent we can see that over his last four games he has scored 132, 177, 135 & 156 fantasy points.
Similar to this, we can also see how players perform at a certain ground. Once again by entering the player’s name in the text filter and selecting ES (Etihad Stadium) and the year 2018 we can see that Jack Macrae hasn’t scored below 107 so far this season at Etihad with three scores over 130.
Historical Performance Leveraging Bookmaker Odds
Bookmaker Odds are a vital piece of information for daily fantasy sports coaches when building their lineups and luckily we can use this information to help identify player trends.
The most basic of filters we can use on the gamelogs database regarding bookmaker projected outcomes is to filter on whether a team is expected to win or lose. Looking at Jesse Hogan’s 2018 season where the Melbourne Demons are currently 6th on the ladder with a record of 9 wins and 6 losses, the filtered gamelogs clearly show a tendency for Hogan to perform well from a fantasy perspective in wins (100.1 avg with 6 hundreds) but underperform in losses (76.5 avg with 1 hundred).
A filter on just wins and losses however only gives you a very high-level indicator of how a player performs as with a small sample size the numbers can be skewed by such factors as blow out wins, rain affected scores, etc, etc. This is one downside to the common win/loss split metric. So, to get a much better understanding of how a player has historically performed in games which approximate the bookmaker projected result we can filter on the Margin and Score fields.
Bookmakers not only provide basic win/loss markets, they also produce markets covering over/under and line from which we can calculate an implied team total (don’t worry, we already have all this for you here). Using this we can get a clearer picture of how players have performed historically in similar situations.
At present, bookmakers have the Melbourne Demons with an implied total of 104.5 (over/under = 177.5 / line = -31.5). If we apply filters to the gamelogs to align with this result (both on Margin and Score, note we’ve used a +/- 20 point buffer on each) we can see that Jesse Hogan has had 5 games this season with similar results and in those he has averaged 105.4 fantasy points, surpassing the 100 mark 80% of the time. This is an improvement over the results we obtained using a simple win/loss filter and highlights the benefit of this strategy.
It’s important to ensure you have a sample size that you are comfortable with, obviously 2 games don’t resemble much of a trend. Applying too many filters or being too specific will likely detract from what you are looking to achieve. Our recommendation is to use the trends you unearth in conjunction with our other tools to ensure you give yourself the best possible chance at winning that tournament or cash game.
As Always, Gamble Responsibly