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AFL DFS Round 12 – By The Numbers

Before we delve into the individual games, coaches can utilise our stats tables for both Draftstars and Moneyball to help unearth value plays each week. We also have detailed gamelogs going back as far as 2014 and season data for every player on dedicated team pages. Researching historical performance has never been easier. All stats broken down below have come direct from resources on this site.

Unlike other sites offering up tips, projections and other recommendations, here at DFS Australia we believe it important to take a step back and put our money where our mouth is by reviewing the previous week’s ‘By The Numbers’ to see how they faired. For those of you interested in seeing how they went then click on the drop down below to uncover the results in tabular form. Where information is missing we expressly indicated that we liked them only on one platform and not the other.

DS Result and MB Result are solely based on the player’s score versus price which has been calculated as value. This value is effectively a multiple of the players salary and a common term in daily fantasy sport. We’ve given our selections a tick when their value is above the mean + 1x standard deviation, a cross when the value is below the mean – 1x standard deviation and a question mark for average when falling in between. (Standard deviation and mean are based on data heading into round 11.)

Player.Name Rd8 DS.Pos DS.Salary DS.Value DS.Result MB.Pos MB.Salary MB.Value MB.Result
James Cousins 62 MID 8650 7.17 MID 3500 17.71
Ryan Burton 118 FWD 11650 10.13 FWD 6600 17.88
Liam Shiels 78 MID 14750 5.29 MID 8200 9.51
Scott Selwood 125 MID MID 6100 20.49
Jake Kelly 40 DEF 9550 4.19 DEF 4900 8.16
Joel Selwood 117 MID 15350 7.62 MID 9600 12.19
Nathan Vardy 55 FWD/RK 9900 5.56 RU 6000 9.17
Jarrod Witts 89 RK 12800 6.95 RU 7400 12.03
Elliot Yeo 106 FWD/MID 13450 7.88 MID 9500 11.16
Matthew Kennedy 70 MID 9600 7.29 MID 5800 12.07
Lachie Whitfield 116 MID 12750 9.10 MID 7600 15.26
Tom Bellchambers 110 RK 10950 10.05 RU 5500 20.00
Luke McDonald 72 DEF 10900 6.61 DEF 6900 10.43
Jack Ziebell 83 MID 14500 5.72 MID 8900 9.33
Ben Cunnington 50 MID 12000 4.17 MID 7500 6.67
Matt Scharenberg 53 DEF 9150 5.79 DEF 3900 13.59
Michael Walters 59 FWD 12550 4.70 FWD 7500 7.87
Luke Ryan 36 DEF 6400 5.63 DEF 3500 10.29

2017 Daily Fantasy Statistical Summary by Team


Bookmaker Odds

Last updated on 2017-06-12 15:02:22 AWST


Draftstars – $20,000 Swans vs Bulldogs

Moneyball – $7,000 Swans vs Bulldogs

Tory Dickson ($10,350 DS, $5,900 MB) has slipped seamlessly back into the side over the last few weeks with scores of 73 and 88. The weather is forecast to be wet and the bookies have this a low scoring match but if the Bulldogs are to win they will need their medium size forward to step up and kick a bag in what are ideal conditions for the Swans.

Speaking of wet weather, we expect a contested style of game and that means plenty of tackles. No one averages more tackles this season for the Swans than midfield ace Dan Hannebery ($10,200 MB, $16,200 DS), he’s the most expensive player on this slate but can you afford not to pick him when he has a huge ceiling, ie 159 vs St Kilda in round 9?

This week may be the week to jump on board Jordan Roughead ($6,300 MB, $9,000 DS) with Tom Boyd missing due to a back injury. Tim English is still in the side but we don’t expect him to take the number one ruck mantle as his body isn’t up to the rigours yet. With the wet weather an increased number of ruck contests should result in the potential for improved scores from these mobile ruck types.

Draftstars – $25,000 Crows vs Saints

Moneyball – $7,000 Crows vs Saints

I had Daniel McKenzie here to start off with but Alan Richardson must have heard and omitted him. Instead we’ll talk about Jack Billings ($8,900 MB, $13,500 DS) who had a down game last week against the Bulldogs which should serve to push his ownership down but coaches with longer memories will remember the three weeks prior to that where he had 3x 100’s for an average of 127 daily fantasy points. He kicks goals but isn’t necessarily dependant on them for large scores with an average of 28 touches over that 3 game period.

A bargain pick, especially on Moneyball is Hugh Greenwood ($4,300 MB, $10,550 DS), every man and his dog will be on him though and for good reason. In his first three games he has had two scores of 93 and 94 away from home and a low of 55 in his only game at Adelaide Oval, I wouldn’t put too much stock into that though as that game was the washout vs Fremantle. His game style provides an excellent floor as he has shown he is a tackling machine with game totals of 9, 6 & 11 so far this year. You can pick with confidence.

He’s the kind of player that will burn you as soon as you pump him up but it was only a year or two ago that we were predicting him to be the next superstar at Adelaide. Brad Crouch ($13,650 DS, $8,100 MB) has been surpassed by his younger brother over the last 18 months due to injuries but he’s quietly been going about his business and improving each game as his time on ground has been trending in the right direction. His kick-to-handball ratio isn’t the healthiest but he’s averaged 29 possessions and 5.7 tackles over the last three weeks for 3 scores of 100 or more.

Draftstars – $?,000 Hawks vs Suns

Moneyball – $1,500 Hawks vs Suns

James Cousins ($3,500 MB, $8,650 DS) is still at a bargain price on Moneyball with his price set to increase after this round. He’s had two scores in the 60’s so far and if he scores the same this week then coaches should be happy. His Draftstars price is slightly more than what we would prefer to pay for someone who is averaging low 60’s but we’re happy in this instance as we see more upside in his game as his confidence increases.

The Hawks are the easiest team to score against in 2017 conceding on average 1713 daily fantasy points a game, 80 more than the league average. Based on this we expect the Gold Coast Suns’ ball winners to have a nice spike in their output, because of this we like Jarryd Lyons this week. He’s been super consistent this year with a consistency metric of 0.1898 and 7 scores of over 95 in his 10 outings. At $12,850 on Draftstars he’s great value especially coming off a season high 133 last week. He’s relatively more expensive on Moneyball at $8,700 but we still like his potential for that price on that platform.

Tom Mitchell and Gary Ablett are the two most expensive players on this slate and are going to seriously affect your ability to put together an even squad (especially on Draftstars) so in light of the Hawks giving up so many points, why not consider Aaron Hall ($10,100 MB, $15,400 DS)? He’s averaged 107.3 daily fantasy points a game this season, bumping that to 128.3 over his last four. His usage rate comes down slightly with Ablett in the side but we expect that to be offset this week with the bump expected by playing Hawthorn.

Draftstars – $?,000 Lions vs Dockers

Moneyball – $1,500 Lions vs Dockers

He’s back, Tom Rockliff ($11,600 MB, $18,700 DS) is priced at the premium end but he’s well worth it. He’s averaged 129.2 this season and not dropped below 100 once. His last three against Fremantle have been 172, 154 & 142 for a three game average of 156, enough said.

Jake Barrett’s ($5,900 MB, $10,650 DS) scoring may be affected by the inclusion of Tom Rockliff but we are struggling to find much value in this match and it’s tough to go past his more recent form, he’s had scores of 80 vs Adelaide and 87 vs Collingwood. He’s shown that he has a willingness to tackle with 6 or more in 5 out of his 7 games this season so his floor is relatively safe. He’s significantly cheaper by comparison on Moneyball but if you are playing this one game slate we recommend considering him on both platforms.

He burnt us last week with a duck egg in the last quarter (59 to three quarter time) but we are going to give him one more chance this week against the Lions. If the Dockers are going to get back on the winners board against the lowly Lions then they need Michael Walters ($11,250 DS, $7,300 MB) to fire. Rounds 8 and 9 showed us what he is capable of with scores of 137 and 118 and if he can go close to that again he’ll be a point of difference with coaches jumping off in droves.

Draftstars – $?,000 Bombers vs Power

Moneyball – $1,500 Bombers vs Power

Chad Wingard ($13,250 DS, $7,900 MB) is back and should be almost a lock in your side for this match assuming he plays up the ground as he’s been doing this season. He had a 4 game average of 109 daily fantasy points prior to his recent spell out of the side, averaging 29 touches a game.

Ollie Wines ($8,900 MB, $14,350 DS) started the season in Brownlow Medal form according to the pundits but he quickly slowed down. Over the last three weeks he’s found some of that early season form and as such has a three game average of 105.3 daily fantasy points with scores of 95, 111 & 110. He’s priced at a discount to the premium midfielders in this match so coaches should jump at the chance of saving those critical dollars to spend elsewhere.

Jared Polec’s ($13,850 DS, $8,300 MB) last three scores have been 127, 122 and 103 and his price on both platforms hasn’t caught up quick enough to resemble that output. The Power love his outside run with the likes of Wines, Powell-Pepper etc giving it to him on a silver platter this season. He’s not one to get tagged by opposition coaches and his game has been much more consistent this year than previous years meaning there is less downside risk. For his price coaches can do a lot worse.

Draftstars – $20,000 Blues vs Giants

Moneyball – $?,000 Blues vs Giants


Draftstars – $25,000 Demons vs Magpies

Moneyball – $?,000 Demons vs Magpies



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