Home » AFL » AFL DFS Round 9 – By The Numbers

AFL DFS Round 9 – By The Numbers

Before we delve into the individual games, coaches can utilise our stats tables for both Draftstars and Moneyball to help unearth value plays each week. We also have detailed gamelogs going back as far as 2014 and season data for every player on dedicated team pages. Researching historical performance has never been easier. All stats broken down below have come direct from resources on this site.

Unlike other sites offering up tips, projections and other recommendations, here at DFS Australia we believe it important to take a step back and put our money where our mouth is by reviewing the previous week’s ‘By The Numbers’ to see how they faired. For those of you interested in seeing how they went then click on the drop down below to uncover the results in tabular form. Where information is missing we expressly indicated that we liked them only on one platform and not the other. In the case of Heath Shaw, our recommendation was not to play him based on his historical results against his previous side.

DS Result and MB Result are solely based on the player’s score versus price which has been calculated as value. This value is effectively a multiple of the players salary and a common term in daily fantasy sport. We’ve given our selections a tick when their value is above the mean + 1x standard deviation, a cross when the value is below the mean – 1x standard deviation and a question mark for average when falling in between. (Standard deviation and mean are based on data heading into round 8.)

Player.Name Rd8 DS.Pos DS.Salary DS.Value DS.Result MB.Pos MB.Salary MB.Value MB.Result
Lachie Hunter 90 MID 13850 6.50
Andrew Gaff 146 MID 13550 10.77 MID 9300 15.70
Jack Macrae 102 MID 13750 7.42 MID 9500 10.74
Tom Rockliff 130 MID 17250 7.54 MID 11400 11.40
Dayne Zorko 125 MID 14750 8.47 MID 10500 11.90
Stefan Martin 134 RK 14150 9.47 RU 9500 14.11
Tom Mitchell 132 MID 16950 7.79 MID 10900 12.11
Tim OBrien 76 FWD 9600 7.92 FWD 5100 14.90
Jack Sinclair 73 FWD/MID 12600 5.79 FWD 4900 14.90
Sam Petrevski-Seton 57 MID 10000 5.70 MID 5900 9.66
Caleb Marchbank 82 DEF 10000 8.20 DEF 5700 14.39
Daniel Lloyd 61 FWD 6550 9.31 FWD 3800 16.05
Heath Shaw 85 DEF 12700 6.69 DEF 8400 10.12
Devon Smith 89 FWD 12300 7.24 FWD 8000 11.13
Sam Menegola 91 MID 14800 6.15 MID 8500 10.71
Joe Daniher 102 FWD 11650 8.76 FWD 7700 13.25
Michael Hurley 100 DEF 11900 8.40 DEF 7700 12.99
Cam Pedersen 94 FWD/RK 12800 7.34 FWD 6000 15.67
Andy Otten 49 DEF/FWD 11100 4.41 DEF 5800 8.45
Rory Sloane 63 MID 16600 3.80 MID 11100 5.68
Bradley Hill 123 MID 12950 9.50 MID 8100 15.19
Toby Nankervis 92 FWD/RK 12400 7.42 RU 7000 13.14
Aaron Sandilands 83 RK 11350 7.31 RU 7900 10.51
Lachie Weller 53 DEF/FWD 9450 5.61
Chad Wingard 98 FWD 12950 7.57 FWD 7600 12.89
Jared Polec 127 MID 10200 12.45
Jasper Pittard 91 DEF 12450 7.31 DEF 7900 11.52
Harrison Marsh 53 DEF 6850 7.74
Dan Hannebery 117 MID 14100 8.30 MID 9500 12.32
Luke Parker 121 MID 13550 8.93 MID 9300 13.01
Josh Kennedy 122 MID 13050 9.35 MID 9300 13.12
Isaac Heeney 118 FWD 12600 9.37 FWD 6900 17.10

2017 Daily Fantasy Statistical Summary by Team

TMGMSFORFOR100FOR120AGSTAGST100AGST120
COLL171716.684291621.95814
ESS171684.273271593.65620
HAW171672.859251703.47529
ADEL171672.777201580.25819
MELB171658.363161610.86419
STK171655.573171669.37221
GCFC171645.871191639.86515
PORT171640.561221609.66117
WB171637.35281652.86720
CARL171626.279321601.56219
WCE171624.959161614.76418
GWS171623.459151537.2448
GEEL171603.266241595.56921
SYD171597.565131627.36115
NMFC171548.63961632.47325
FRE171546.947121700.27023
BL171538.559251616.86018
RICH171524.846171610.95322

Bookmaker Odds

Last updated on 2017-06-12 15:02:22 AWST

TMOPPDAYLINEO/UPROJ
ADELSTKFRI-37.5195.5116.5
GWSCARLSUN-32.5186.5109.5
PORTESSSAT-15.5191.5103.5
FREBRISAT-18.5181.5100
HAWGCFCSAT-7.5187.597.5
MELBCOLLMON-10.5184.597.5
GCFCHAWSAT7.5187.590
ESSPORTSAT15.5191.588
COLLMELBMON10.5184.587
BRIFRESAT18.5181.581.5
STKADELFRI37.5195.579
SYDWBTHUR-4.5151.578
CARLGWSSUN32.5186.577
WBSYDTHUR4.5151.573.5

Draftstars – $25,000 Cats vs Bulldogs

Moneyball – $8,000 Cats vs Bulldogs

The Bulldogs who are the fourth highest scoring daily fantasy side come up against the Cats who concede the fourth highest points. We don’t expect much to change in this game and as such are quite bullish on a number of what we feel are underpriced Doggies.

We flagged Lachie Hunter last week and we’ll flag him again this week. His price has dropped to a ridiculous level for a player of his quality on Draftstars with coaches now able to get him for $12,900. He’s had 6 scores of 89 or more with 3 of those hundreds. Coming up against a side that gives up more 100’s than anyone else in the competition, daily fantasy coaches should seriously consider rostering the number 7. Priced somewhat higher on Moneyball at $9,200 we feel he provides less value on that platform.

YRRDPlayer.NameTMOppFPGrndKMHGBHOTFFFATOG
201718Lachie HunterWBGCFC115CS2410700011286
201717Lachie HunterWBCARL79MCG97311051192
201716Lachie HunterWBADEL97AO214601030182
201715Lachie HunterWBWCE100ES1611020050184
201714Lachie HunterWBNMFC109ES189411031088
201713Lachie HunterWBMELB84ES1151500021183
201712Lachie HunterWBSYD66SCG931300010082
201710Lachie HunterWBSTK73ES1131000023085
20179Lachie HunterWBGEEL47SS61700030086
20178Lachie HunterWBWCE90DS1231400041089
20177Lachie HunterWBRICH131ES1381510080090
20176Lachie HunterWBGWS89UNSW157500040187
20175Lachie HunterWBBL67ES112701031091
20174Lachie HunterWBNMFC69ES133601020092
20173Lachie HunterWBFRE114DS176931020067
20172Lachie HunterWBSYD91ES1161411011085
20171Lachie HunterWBCOLL101MCG136830022083

Mitch Wallis returns this week from that horrific leg injury incurred last season (the less said about that the better). The last two seasons he’s averaged 79.8 & 89.5 and has a habit of being a little hot and cold at times but $10,500 on Draftstars is just way too cheap not to have him on your radar. His VFL scores for Footscray this year have been nothing but outstanding with 144, 103 and 92 leading into his return. His price on Moneyball is somewhat more expensive at $7,300 but still worth looking at.

Another player making his return from a lengthy injury layoff is Scott Selwood. He’ll play in the guts, likely with a tagging job on one of the Bulldogs star midfielders and win plenty of ball himself. His lengthy layoff has him in bargain territory on both Draftstars ($8,550) and Moneyball ($6,100). He’s only played 5 games for the Cats since crossing from the Eagles but in those 5 games he averaged 79.7 with a top score of 104.

YRRDPlayer.NameTMOppFPGrndKMHGBHOTFFFATOG
201626Scott SelwoodGEELSYD67MCG421400060179
201624Scott SelwoodGEELHAW83MCG911100082176
201622Scott SelwoodGEELBL85G1161100033181
201621Scott SelwoodGEELRICH104MCG1281301041081
201620Scott SelwoodGEELESS50ES92700021287

Draftstars – $1,000 Saints vs Swans

Moneyball – $1,500 Saints vs Swans

Koby Stevens is back this week from an MRP enforced layoff. He’s only played two games this year but he’s been a proven daily fantasy player at his previous clubs. He’s underpriced on Moneyball ($7,700) and Draftstars ($13,500) for a player who has scores of 106 & 108 in his two starts this year. He had 3 consecutive 100’s at Etihad Stadium last year between rounds 4 & 6 and Sydney have been conceding the second most daily fantasy points of any club this season.

YRRDPlayer.NameTMOppFPGrndKMHGBHOTFFFATOG

Jack Sinclair only put up 73 points last week after 82 & 106 in his first two games this season. As a result, Draftstars has dropped his price to $10,500 which make him great value this week. His price on Moneyball has risen $500 to $5,400 but based on an average of 87 he is still one of the best value plays on the board.

Luke Parker hasn’t been in great form this year with only 1 hundred from his 8 games, but this means his price has dropped a little on both platforms ($14,700 DS, $9,300). He’s topped 30 touches in both the Swans last games and collected his first 100 of the season last week so his form is trending up. However, what we like is his history at Etihad Stadium where he has only failed to reach 100 once since the start of 2014, including a huge 144 the last time he met the Saints there.

YRRDPlayer.NameTMOppFPGrndKMHGBHOTFFFATOG

Draftstars – $1,000 Giants vs Tigers

Moneyball – $1,500 Giants vs Tigers

Fact, over the last two weeks Shaun Grigg is the only Tiger two have scored a hundred, doing it in both the loss to the Bulldogs and the Dockers. Fact, the Giants are the second toughest side to score against and concede the least 100’s. Things don’t seem to bode well for the Tigers.

Daniel Lloyd is still bargain basement price on Moneyball at $3,800 and after getting his first outing behind him last week for a score of 61 (from 17 touches) we’d expect him to exceed this score this week and provide coaches excellent value. Beware though, he’ll be very highly owned. His price on Draftstars has risen $1,550 to $7,950 but don’t let that put you off, that is still way under for what he is capable of.

Lachie Whitfield came back last week from a league imposed suspension and scored 97 on the back of 25 touches and 6 marks. Draftstars have actually reduced his price this week to $11,500 which is way too cheap, his price on Moneyball holds steady at $7,500. He played 9 games at Spotless Stadium in 2016 with 5 of those going at better than 90 daily fantasy points.

YRRDPlayer.NameTMOppFPGrndKMHGBHOTFFFATOG

Someone to consider who has quietly put together nice back-to-back games is Nathan Wilson ($9,850 DS, $6,200 MB). He’s a little better value on Draftstars than Moneyball but his last two games have gone for 81 & 100, which would suggest he’s capitalising on the injuries at the Giants. Quite a risky pick as his time on ground might regress back to his low to mid 70’s average instead of the 85% on the weekend but he’s one to consider in GPP’s.

Draftstars – $1,000 Lions vs Crows

Moneyball – $1,500 Lions vs Crows

The Brisbane Lions just aren’t having any luck this year with injuries to key midfielders, but it does open up some opportunities for daily fantasy coaches.

One player we recommend you do some research on is Ben Keays, Draftstars have him priced at $9,650 and he’s a little better value on Moneyball at $5,500. He’s been capitalising on the injuries at the Lions and put together a nice form line of 80, 72, 80 over his last three and his time on ground has consistently been over 80%. He only managed 13 touches last week against the Hawks but he laid 12 tackles showing he’s not afraid to help his daily fantasy coaches by getting down and dirty.

Another player who has stepped up in the absence of some of the Lions gun midfielders over the past fortnight is Ryan Lester. Averaging 100 over the last fortnight means he is going at 9.43x on Draftstars ($10,600) and 15.63x ($6,400) on Moneyball. Those value multiples speak for themselves.

Predominantly a Draftstars selection based on his price of $11,600, Tom Lynch is now at a price where he needs to be seriously considered. His price has dropped due to a concussion he received in round 7 meaning he only played 47% game time instead of his usual 90+. During the Crows stellar run between rounds 2 and 6 he averaged 106.2 which is a 9.12x salary. He’s averaged 133 agains the Lions over his last 2, although they were both played at Adelaide Oval.

YRRDPlayer.NameTMOppFPGrndKMHGBHOTFFFATOG
201718Tom T LynchADELGEEL83AO127711032385
201717Tom T LynchADELMELB130TIO1911832010079
201714Tom T LynchADELHAW98AO1371111021090
201712Tom T LynchADELSTK115AO178531023092
201711Tom T LynchADELGEEL90SS116922022191
201710Tom T LynchADELFRE71AO124901010088
20179Tom T LynchADELBL119G168732031084
20178Tom T LynchADELMELB66AO75900030091
20177Tom T LynchADELNMFC39BA72300012047
20176Tom T LynchADELRICH108AO139932010090
20175Tom T LynchADELGCFC101MS1510533001296
20174Tom T LynchADELESS83AO99521021195
20173Tom T LynchADELPORT100AO147820033288
20172Tom T LynchADELHAW139MCG14141712040189
20171Tom T LynchADELGWS54AO104700010288

Draftstars – $5,000 Magpies vs Hawks

Moneyball – $1,500 Magpies vs Hawks

Ryan Burton ($11,400 DS, $6,100 MB) is living up to the expectations that recruiters had of him prior to a horrific leg injury in the SANFL in his draft year. He is sixth on the Hawks for average daily fantasy points and of those six he sits behind only Tom Mitchell for consistency. His average of 87.3 jumps by over 5 points to 92.5 at the MCG this year. His daily fantasy salary simply hasn’t caught up with his production yet and coaches need to exploit that. Warning though, he will be highly owned.

YRRDPlayer.NameTMOppFPGrndKMHGBHOTFFFATOG
201718Ryan BurtonHAWFRE73DS1151000020180
201717Ryan BurtonHAWGEEL63MCG113801010087
201716Ryan BurtonHAWGWS74US105800040192
201715Ryan BurtonHAWCOLL97MCG1561400030279
201714Ryan BurtonHAWADEL86AO135820010088
201712Ryan BurtonHAWGCFC62MCG911000042283
201711Ryan BurtonHAWPORT118AO1811700050184
201710Ryan BurtonHAWSYD77SCG169400000287
20179Ryan BurtonHAWCOLL81MCG139300030190
20178Ryan BurtonHAWBL90US165900021091
20177Ryan BurtonHAWMELB94MCG146900040085
20176Ryan BurtonHAWSTK69US134300030078
20175Ryan BurtonHAWWCE93MCG156900030078
20174Ryan BurtonHAWGEEL71MCG112800040082
20173Ryan BurtonHAWGCFC82MS134410050181
20172Ryan BurtonHAWADEL112MCG1591100042092

Better value on Draftstars ($10,900) than on Moneyball ($7,500), Billy Hartung is having a very consistent year. His last 4 weeks he hasn’t dropped below 80 with a top score of 98 coming against Brisbane last week. Unlikely to get you a huge score but his floor is relatively safe so far this year and at his price you’d only need to look at getting 85 to be considered great value.

Jamie Elliott has kicked 3 goals in 3 of his last 4 matches, each of those games going for 85+ daily fantasy points. Draftstars have bumped his price by $2,150 to probably what we consider close to fair value at $10,600, however the different pricing structure on Moneyball means he is way under priced at $5,800. The bookies have the Magpies winning this game by a couple of goals with an expected score of ~90 points. If that rings true we’d expect Elliott to deliver the goods again.

Draftstars – $1,000 Bombers vs Eagles

Moneyball – $1,500 Bombers vs Eagles

Fraser McInnes held his spot this week at the Eagles and that’s great news for daily fantasy players. He’s bargain basement value at both Draftstars ($7,800) and Moneyball ($4,300) and with his role being that second ruckman he’s guaranteed to be around the ball more so than in previous seasons where he was primarily used as a key tall forward. He scored 74 in his season debut last week and coming up against Daniher in the ruck as the Bombers second ruckman we expect he’ll score similar this week. Strongly consider.

Dom Sheed can be a little up and down but he’s averaging 83.3 over his last three which makes him great value over at Draftstars where he is only $10,400 and can be picked as a midfielder or a forward. Less attractive on Moneyball for his price of $6,600. His two best scores this season (99, 103) have come in the last three weeks but both of those have been at Domain Stadium so although he has great potential he’s yet to show it on the road.

YRRDPlayer.NameTMOppFPGrndKMHGBHOTFFFATOG
201718Dom SheedWCECOLL102ES1491200030179
201717Dom SheedWCEFRE91DS1351411011172
201716Dom SheedWCEPORT49DS80701040277
201715Dom SheedWCEWB102ES213712020082
201714Dom SheedWCEMELB96DS143711060074
201713Dom SheedWCEGEEL112DS136920061069
201711Dom SheedWCEGCFC126MS1481602062072
201710Dom SheedWCEGWS98DS1142000031078
20179Dom SheedWCEESS70ES134500021073
20178Dom SheedWCEWB103DS167721022183
20177Dom SheedWCEPORT48AO83510011269
20176Dom SheedWCEFRE99DS1561000034076
20175Dom SheedWCEHAW72MCG931400020071
20172Dom SheedWCESTK49DS74400020069

We recommended him last week and he didn’t disappoint and we’ll continue to recommend Michael Hurley until his price exceeds fair value. Slightly better value on Draftstars at $12,650 than his $8,000 salary on Moneyball he’s averaged 100.25 over his last four games with a low score of 94. His score is dependant on taking plenty of marks in the defensive half which won’t be affected by any weather under the roof at Etihad this weekend.

YRRDPlayer.NameTMOppFPGrndKMHGBHOTFFFATOG
201718Michael HurleyESSNMFC69ES144700001097
201717Michael HurleyESSSTK113ES1691110022095
201716Michael HurleyESSCOLL122MCG19111100031195
201715Michael HurleyESSBL94ES1831301010095
201714Michael HurleyESSSYD105SCG218910000295
201712Michael HurleyESSPORT86ES1461100010096
201711Michael HurleyESSGWS79SPO129900010296
201710Michael HurleyESSRICH95MCG185900020095
20179Michael HurleyESSWCE100ES179900010084
20178Michael HurleyESSGEEL100MCG1781000011095
20177Michael HurleyESSFRE99DS179710010190
20176Michael HurleyESSMELB108ES1913400010090
20175Michael HurleyESSCOLL94MCG195600022092
20174Michael HurleyESSADEL85AO158800000098
20173Michael HurleyESSCARL64MCG133600010089
20172Michael HurleyESSBL70G156500012392
20171Michael HurleyESSHAW77MCG177400000187

Draftstars – $1,000 Demons vs Kangaroos

Moneyball – $1,500 Demons vs Kangaroos

Todd Goldstein ($14,550 DS, $8,700 MB) hasn’t been in stellar form this year averaging 89.6 which is his worst return since 2014 but the Demons are playing a make shift ruck set up due to injuries to Gawn and Spencer. Last week they gave up 74 hitouts to Sam Jacobs for a total of 132 daily fantasy points and Goldstein should be able to capitalise on this on Sunday.

Cam Pedersen has been super consistent since coming back into the side with scores of 98, 97 & 94. He’s the make shift ruckman but his scoring isn’t dependent on hitouts as his mobility allows him to accumulate the ball around the ground. Because of this his floor is reasonably safe. He’s better value on Moneyball at $6,700 but is still some what underpriced on Draftstars at $12,100.

YRRDPlayer.NameTMOppFPGrndKMHGBHOTFFFATOG
201717Cameron PedersenMELBADEL61TIO745011022182
201716Cameron PedersenMELBCARL57MCG65400820076
201715Cameron PedersenMELBSYD65MCG531000642186
201714Cameron PedersenMELBWCE65DS73811720185
201713Cameron PedersenMELBWB96ES1161300631093
201712Cameron PedersenMELBCOLL75MCG449101251282
201710Cameron PedersenMELBGCFC97TP891100750187
20179Cameron PedersenMELBNMFC120MCG8510201891291
20178Cameron PedersenMELBADEL94AO1221302231186
20177Cameron PedersenMELBHAW97MCG6410111660078
20176Cameron PedersenMELBESS98ES1188121802186

Tom McDonald is a Draftstars special at $11,800, his last three games have seen scores of 116, 81 & 92. He’s only fair value at $8,000 on Moneyball though so less value to be had there.

Draftstars – $1,000 Dockers vs Blues

Moneyball – $1,500 Dockers vs Blues

Bradley Hill has been in scintillating form of late on a wing for the Dockers and the daily fantasy platforms haven’t increased his price fast enough with Moneyball having him at $8,600 and Draftstars $13,850. His last two games have gone for 159 and 123 and with the likes of Nat Fyfe and others in the midfield who take up the majority of the opposition’s attention he should easily reach value on both platforms with the added bonus of a huge ceiling.

YRRDPlayer.NameTMOppFPGrndKMHGBHOTFFFATOG
201718Bradley HillFREHAW77DS1451100001181
201717Bradley HillFREWCE109DS214703041082
201716Bradley HillFRENMFC92ES186701020182
201715Bradley HillFRESTK121DS218810030087
201714Bradley HillFREGEEL112SS1761010041085
201712Bradley HillFREBL111G217320030183
201711Bradley HillFRECOLL79DS144812001087
201710Bradley HillFREADEL50AO85500010181
20179Bradley HillFRECARL89DS123620050084
20178Bradley HillFRERICH123MCG2511311011184
20177Bradley HillFREESS159DS3016711000088
20176Bradley HillFREWCE78DS116900030179
20175Bradley HillFRENMFC98DS178610020180
20174Bradley HillFREMELB83MCG127702031184
20173Bradley HillFREWB94DS1581001010078
20172Bradley HillFREPORT109AO1871310011179
20171Bradley HillFREGEEL60DS114610000180

Connor Blakely ($7,400 MB, $12,400 DS) is one of the most consistent plays on the board in this matchup (ignoring his 17 in round 2). He’s averaging 88.4 at Domain Stadium this year with 110 the last time around. He’ll likely take Carlton’s best midfielder ensuring he’ll be around the ball plenty. He doesn’t have a huge ceiling but at his price he should be considered for head-to-head and double-ups.

YRRDPlayer.NameTMOppFPGrndKMHGBHOTFFFATOG
201718Connor BlakelyFREHAW114DS209900021085
201717Connor BlakelyFREWCE149DS23111001062090
201716Connor BlakelyFRENMFC135ES19121300040092
201714Connor BlakelyFREGEEL107SS197800031090
201712Connor BlakelyFREBL71G711200071274
201711Connor BlakelyFRECOLL92DS204600023174
201710Connor BlakelyFREADEL119AO1631302082075
20179Connor BlakelyFRECARL134DS1971400091388
20178Connor BlakelyFRERICH97MCG851700063176
20177Connor BlakelyFREESS110DS1391600030072
20176Connor BlakelyFREWCE88DS932000030075
20175Connor BlakelyFRENMFC74DS721700031073
20174Connor BlakelyFREMELB75MCG931400023085
20173Connor BlakelyFREWB80DS96900041079
20172Connor BlakelyFREPORT17AO31200010159
20171Connor BlakelyFREGEEL90DS951411031080

And finally, the last player for the round is Michael Walters. The docker had a slow start to the season but has turned it on the last two rounds with increased midfield time. He’s averaged 112.5 over his last two which is bargain territory for someone priced at $6,700 on Moneyball and $11,900 on Draftstars.


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