Before we delve into the individual games, coaches can utilise our stats tables for both Draftstars and Moneyball to help unearth value plays each week. We also have detailed gamelogs going back as far as 2014 and season data for every player on dedicated team pages. Researching historical performance has never been easier. All stats broken down below have come direct from resources on this site.
Unlike other sites offering up tips, projections and other recommendations, here at DFS Australia we believe it important to take a step back and put our money where our mouth is by reviewing the previous week’s ‘By The Numbers’ to see how they faired. For those of you interested in seeing how they went then click on the drop down below to uncover the results in tabular form. Where information is missing we expressly indicated that we liked them only on one platform and not the other. In the case of Heath Shaw, our recommendation was not to play him based on his historical results against his previous side.
DS Result and MB Result are solely based on the player’s score versus price which has been calculated as value. This value is effectively a multiple of the players salary and a common term in daily fantasy sport. We’ve given our selections a tick when their value is above the mean + 1x standard deviation, a cross when the value is below the mean – 1x standard deviation and a question mark for average when falling in between. (Standard deviation and mean are based on data heading into round 8.)
2017 Daily Fantasy Statistical Summary by Team
Last updated on 2017-06-12 15:02:22 AWST
The Bulldogs who are the fourth highest scoring daily fantasy side come up against the Cats who concede the fourth highest points. We don’t expect much to change in this game and as such are quite bullish on a number of what we feel are underpriced Doggies.
We flagged Lachie Hunter last week and we’ll flag him again this week. His price has dropped to a ridiculous level for a player of his quality on Draftstars with coaches now able to get him for $12,900. He’s had 6 scores of 89 or more with 3 of those hundreds. Coming up against a side that gives up more 100’s than anyone else in the competition, daily fantasy coaches should seriously consider rostering the number 7. Priced somewhat higher on Moneyball at $9,200 we feel he provides less value on that platform.
Mitch Wallis returns this week from that horrific leg injury incurred last season (the less said about that the better). The last two seasons he’s averaged 79.8 & 89.5 and has a habit of being a little hot and cold at times but $10,500 on Draftstars is just way too cheap not to have him on your radar. His VFL scores for Footscray this year have been nothing but outstanding with 144, 103 and 92 leading into his return. His price on Moneyball is somewhat more expensive at $7,300 but still worth looking at.
Another player making his return from a lengthy injury layoff is Scott Selwood. He’ll play in the guts, likely with a tagging job on one of the Bulldogs star midfielders and win plenty of ball himself. His lengthy layoff has him in bargain territory on both Draftstars ($8,550) and Moneyball ($6,100). He’s only played 5 games for the Cats since crossing from the Eagles but in those 5 games he averaged 79.7 with a top score of 104.
Koby Stevens is back this week from an MRP enforced layoff. He’s only played two games this year but he’s been a proven daily fantasy player at his previous clubs. He’s underpriced on Moneyball ($7,700) and Draftstars ($13,500) for a player who has scores of 106 & 108 in his two starts this year. He had 3 consecutive 100’s at Etihad Stadium last year between rounds 4 & 6 and Sydney have been conceding the second most daily fantasy points of any club this season.
Jack Sinclair only put up 73 points last week after 82 & 106 in his first two games this season. As a result, Draftstars has dropped his price to $10,500 which make him great value this week. His price on Moneyball has risen $500 to $5,400 but based on an average of 87 he is still one of the best value plays on the board.
Luke Parker hasn’t been in great form this year with only 1 hundred from his 8 games, but this means his price has dropped a little on both platforms ($14,700 DS, $9,300). He’s topped 30 touches in both the Swans last games and collected his first 100 of the season last week so his form is trending up. However, what we like is his history at Etihad Stadium where he has only failed to reach 100 once since the start of 2014, including a huge 144 the last time he met the Saints there.
Fact, over the last two weeks Shaun Grigg is the only Tiger two have scored a hundred, doing it in both the loss to the Bulldogs and the Dockers. Fact, the Giants are the second toughest side to score against and concede the least 100’s. Things don’t seem to bode well for the Tigers.
Daniel Lloyd is still bargain basement price on Moneyball at $3,800 and after getting his first outing behind him last week for a score of 61 (from 17 touches) we’d expect him to exceed this score this week and provide coaches excellent value. Beware though, he’ll be very highly owned. His price on Draftstars has risen $1,550 to $7,950 but don’t let that put you off, that is still way under for what he is capable of.
Lachie Whitfield came back last week from a league imposed suspension and scored 97 on the back of 25 touches and 6 marks. Draftstars have actually reduced his price this week to $11,500 which is way too cheap, his price on Moneyball holds steady at $7,500. He played 9 games at Spotless Stadium in 2016 with 5 of those going at better than 90 daily fantasy points.
Someone to consider who has quietly put together nice back-to-back games is Nathan Wilson ($9,850 DS, $6,200 MB). He’s a little better value on Draftstars than Moneyball but his last two games have gone for 81 & 100, which would suggest he’s capitalising on the injuries at the Giants. Quite a risky pick as his time on ground might regress back to his low to mid 70’s average instead of the 85% on the weekend but he’s one to consider in GPP’s.
The Brisbane Lions just aren’t having any luck this year with injuries to key midfielders, but it does open up some opportunities for daily fantasy coaches.
One player we recommend you do some research on is Ben Keays, Draftstars have him priced at $9,650 and he’s a little better value on Moneyball at $5,500. He’s been capitalising on the injuries at the Lions and put together a nice form line of 80, 72, 80 over his last three and his time on ground has consistently been over 80%. He only managed 13 touches last week against the Hawks but he laid 12 tackles showing he’s not afraid to help his daily fantasy coaches by getting down and dirty.
Another player who has stepped up in the absence of some of the Lions gun midfielders over the past fortnight is Ryan Lester. Averaging 100 over the last fortnight means he is going at 9.43x on Draftstars ($10,600) and 15.63x ($6,400) on Moneyball. Those value multiples speak for themselves.
Predominantly a Draftstars selection based on his price of $11,600, Tom Lynch is now at a price where he needs to be seriously considered. His price has dropped due to a concussion he received in round 7 meaning he only played 47% game time instead of his usual 90+. During the Crows stellar run between rounds 2 and 6 he averaged 106.2 which is a 9.12x salary. He’s averaged 133 agains the Lions over his last 2, although they were both played at Adelaide Oval.
|2017||18||Tom T Lynch||ADEL||GEEL||83||AO||12||7||7||1||1||0||3||2||3||85|
|2017||17||Tom T Lynch||ADEL||MELB||130||TIO||19||11||8||3||2||0||1||0||0||79|
|2017||14||Tom T Lynch||ADEL||HAW||98||AO||13||7||11||1||1||0||2||1||0||90|
|2017||12||Tom T Lynch||ADEL||STK||115||AO||17||8||5||3||1||0||2||3||0||92|
|2017||11||Tom T Lynch||ADEL||GEEL||90||SS||11||6||9||2||2||0||2||2||1||91|
|2017||10||Tom T Lynch||ADEL||FRE||71||AO||12||4||9||0||1||0||1||0||0||88|
|2017||9||Tom T Lynch||ADEL||BL||119||G||16||8||7||3||2||0||3||1||0||84|
|2017||8||Tom T Lynch||ADEL||MELB||66||AO||7||5||9||0||0||0||3||0||0||91|
|2017||7||Tom T Lynch||ADEL||NMFC||39||BA||7||2||3||0||0||0||1||2||0||47|
|2017||6||Tom T Lynch||ADEL||RICH||108||AO||13||9||9||3||2||0||1||0||0||90|
|2017||5||Tom T Lynch||ADEL||GCFC||101||MS||15||10||5||3||3||0||0||1||2||96|
|2017||4||Tom T Lynch||ADEL||ESS||83||AO||9||9||5||2||1||0||2||1||1||95|
|2017||3||Tom T Lynch||ADEL||PORT||100||AO||14||7||8||2||0||0||3||3||2||88|
|2017||2||Tom T Lynch||ADEL||HAW||139||MCG||14||14||17||1||2||0||4||0||1||89|
|2017||1||Tom T Lynch||ADEL||GWS||54||AO||10||4||7||0||0||0||1||0||2||88|
Ryan Burton ($11,400 DS, $6,100 MB) is living up to the expectations that recruiters had of him prior to a horrific leg injury in the SANFL in his draft year. He is sixth on the Hawks for average daily fantasy points and of those six he sits behind only Tom Mitchell for consistency. His average of 87.3 jumps by over 5 points to 92.5 at the MCG this year. His daily fantasy salary simply hasn’t caught up with his production yet and coaches need to exploit that. Warning though, he will be highly owned.
Better value on Draftstars ($10,900) than on Moneyball ($7,500), Billy Hartung is having a very consistent year. His last 4 weeks he hasn’t dropped below 80 with a top score of 98 coming against Brisbane last week. Unlikely to get you a huge score but his floor is relatively safe so far this year and at his price you’d only need to look at getting 85 to be considered great value.
Jamie Elliott has kicked 3 goals in 3 of his last 4 matches, each of those games going for 85+ daily fantasy points. Draftstars have bumped his price by $2,150 to probably what we consider close to fair value at $10,600, however the different pricing structure on Moneyball means he is way under priced at $5,800. The bookies have the Magpies winning this game by a couple of goals with an expected score of ~90 points. If that rings true we’d expect Elliott to deliver the goods again.
Fraser McInnes held his spot this week at the Eagles and that’s great news for daily fantasy players. He’s bargain basement value at both Draftstars ($7,800) and Moneyball ($4,300) and with his role being that second ruckman he’s guaranteed to be around the ball more so than in previous seasons where he was primarily used as a key tall forward. He scored 74 in his season debut last week and coming up against Daniher in the ruck as the Bombers second ruckman we expect he’ll score similar this week. Strongly consider.
Dom Sheed can be a little up and down but he’s averaging 83.3 over his last three which makes him great value over at Draftstars where he is only $10,400 and can be picked as a midfielder or a forward. Less attractive on Moneyball for his price of $6,600. His two best scores this season (99, 103) have come in the last three weeks but both of those have been at Domain Stadium so although he has great potential he’s yet to show it on the road.
We recommended him last week and he didn’t disappoint and we’ll continue to recommend Michael Hurley until his price exceeds fair value. Slightly better value on Draftstars at $12,650 than his $8,000 salary on Moneyball he’s averaged 100.25 over his last four games with a low score of 94. His score is dependant on taking plenty of marks in the defensive half which won’t be affected by any weather under the roof at Etihad this weekend.
Todd Goldstein ($14,550 DS, $8,700 MB) hasn’t been in stellar form this year averaging 89.6 which is his worst return since 2014 but the Demons are playing a make shift ruck set up due to injuries to Gawn and Spencer. Last week they gave up 74 hitouts to Sam Jacobs for a total of 132 daily fantasy points and Goldstein should be able to capitalise on this on Sunday.
Cam Pedersen has been super consistent since coming back into the side with scores of 98, 97 & 94. He’s the make shift ruckman but his scoring isn’t dependent on hitouts as his mobility allows him to accumulate the ball around the ground. Because of this his floor is reasonably safe. He’s better value on Moneyball at $6,700 but is still some what underpriced on Draftstars at $12,100.
Tom McDonald is a Draftstars special at $11,800, his last three games have seen scores of 116, 81 & 92. He’s only fair value at $8,000 on Moneyball though so less value to be had there.
Bradley Hill has been in scintillating form of late on a wing for the Dockers and the daily fantasy platforms haven’t increased his price fast enough with Moneyball having him at $8,600 and Draftstars $13,850. His last two games have gone for 159 and 123 and with the likes of Nat Fyfe and others in the midfield who take up the majority of the opposition’s attention he should easily reach value on both platforms with the added bonus of a huge ceiling.
Connor Blakely ($7,400 MB, $12,400 DS) is one of the most consistent plays on the board in this matchup (ignoring his 17 in round 2). He’s averaging 88.4 at Domain Stadium this year with 110 the last time around. He’ll likely take Carlton’s best midfielder ensuring he’ll be around the ball plenty. He doesn’t have a huge ceiling but at his price he should be considered for head-to-head and double-ups.
And finally, the last player for the round is Michael Walters. The docker had a slow start to the season but has turned it on the last two rounds with increased midfield time. He’s averaged 112.5 over his last two which is bargain territory for someone priced at $6,700 on Moneyball and $11,900 on Draftstars.