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AFL DFS Round 11 – By The Numbers

Before we delve into the individual games, coaches can utilise our stats tables for both Draftstars and Moneyball to help unearth value plays each week. We also have detailed gamelogs going back as far as 2014 and season data for every player on dedicated team pages. Researching historical performance has never been easier. All stats broken down below have come direct from resources on this site.

Unlike other sites offering up tips, projections and other recommendations, here at DFS Australia we believe it important to take a step back and put our money where our mouth is by reviewing the previous week’s ‘By The Numbers’ to see how they faired. For those of you interested in seeing how they went then click on the drop down below to uncover the results in tabular form. Where information is missing we expressly indicated that we liked them only on one platform and not the other.

DS Result and MB Result are solely based on the player’s score versus price which has been calculated as value. This value is effectively a multiple of the players salary and a common term in daily fantasy sport. We’ve given our selections a tick when their value is above the mean + 1x standard deviation, a cross when the value is below the mean – 1x standard deviation and a question mark for average when falling in between. (Standard deviation and mean are based on data heading into round 10.)

Player.Name Rd10 DS.Pos DS.Salary DS.Value DS.Result MB.Pos MB.Salary MB.Value MB.Result
Charlie Dixon 66 FWD 12300 5.37 FWD 7400 8.92
Karl Amon 43 FWD/MID 11250 3.82 MID 6700 6.42
Scott Selwood 119 MID 15150 7.85 MID 6100 19.51
Tom Papley 86 FWD 10450 8.23 FWD 6400 13.44
Zak Jones 119 DEF/MID 9700 12.27 DEF 7000 17.00
Tom Mitchell 108 MID 11400 9.47
Tom Boyd 56 FWD/RK 10050 5.57 RU 6200 9.03
Blake Acres 81 MID 11100 7.30 MID 7600 10.66
Mitch Wallis 89 MID 12150 7.33 MID 7300 12.19
Alex Neal-Bullen 76 FWD/MID 10450 7.27 MID 6500 11.69
Jarrod Witts 97 RU 11400 8.51 RU 7100 13.66
Cam Pedersen 97 FWD/RK 12600 7.70 FWD 6800 14.26
Tom Bellchambers 74 RK 10600 6.98 RU 5500 13.45
Michael Hurley 95 DEF/MID 12300 7.72 DEF 8100 11.73
Jayden Short 51 FWD/MID 9600 5.31 MID 5600 9.11
Taylor Walker 37 FWD 10550 3.51 FWD 7200 5.14
Michael Walters 38 FWD 13600 2.79 FWD 7200 5.28
Hugh Greenwood 55 FWD/MID 11150 4.93 MID 3800 14.47
Ryan Lester 42 MID 11050 3.80 MID 6700 6.27
Jamie Elliott 102 FWD 11400 8.95 FWD 6100 16.72
Matthew Scharenburg 67 DEF 7500 8.93 DEF 3900 17.18
Marc Murphy 90 MID 14700 6.12 MID 10100 8.91
Caleb Marchbank 87 DEF 9550 9.11 DEF 6200 14.03
Ben Cunnington 50 MID 12550 3.98 MID 7600 6.58
Matthew Kennedy 93 MID 9050 10.28 MID 5600 16.61
Andrew Gaff 124 MID 14600 8.49 MID 9500 13.05
Matt de Boer 42 FWD/MID 10500 4.00 MID 5700 7.37

2017 Daily Fantasy Statistical Summary by Team


Bookmaker Odds

Last updated on 2017-06-12 15:02:22 AWST


Draftstars – $20,000 Power vs Hawks

Moneyball – $7,000 Power vs Hawks

James Cousins played only 58% game time in his season debut last week but he showed his potential by scoring at 0.95PPM to end up with a total of 66 daily fantasy points. To put this in to perspective, that is a similar scoring rate as teammates Liam Shiels, Isaac Smith and Luke Hodge. With his first game in the bag we should expect to see somewhat of an increase in his playing time and at a basement price of $3,500 on Moneyball he can’t be ignored. Draftstars have increased his salary by $2,800 to $8,650 but he still presents great value there too.

Ryan Burton continues to excel for Hawthorn down back and the bookies are projecting an easy win for the Power this week meaning that there should be plenty of ball down the Hawk’s defensive 50. Clarkson likes getting the ball into the hands of the South Australian and over the last month has averaged 14.8 kicks, 7.3 marks, 6.3 handballs and 85.5 fantasy points. He’s one of the most consistent daily fantasy performers on the Hawks list so presents low risk to coaches with great value on Moneyball at $6,600. He’s comparatively more expensive on Draftstars at $11,650 but still a great selection.

Liam Shiels has really stepped up over the last three weeks, all his major stat averages have increased from the first seven weeks of the season (kicks +6, handballs +1.6, marks +1 and tackles +3.5) and as such he’s pumped out consecutive scores of 120, 103 and 133. Those numbers are premium returns for a player costing you only $8,200 on Moneyball. Draftstars have bumped his price to $14,750 but even then his form value is more than 8x his salary which needs to be seriously considered.

201718Liam ShielsHAWFRE99DS1151402051082
201717Liam ShielsHAWGEEL122MCG1371611062179
201716Liam ShielsHAWGWS68US82901061280
201715Liam ShielsHAWCOLL94MCG155511041076
201714Liam ShielsHAWADEL90AO931200072083
201712Liam ShielsHAWGCFC92MCG8311000100185
201711Liam ShielsHAWPORT78AO113900060290
201710Liam ShielsHAWSYD133SCG18413010100087
20179Liam ShielsHAWCOLL103MCG1531010080375
20178Liam ShielsHAWBL120US175811082183
20177Liam ShielsHAWMELB55MCG93401040284
20176Liam ShielsHAWSTK73US123900040277
20175Liam ShielsHAWWCE121MCG176911072176
20174Liam ShielsHAWGEEL75MCG1131300031281
20173Liam ShielsHAWGCFC90MS931200072077
20172Liam ShielsHAWADEL68MCG60510091169
20171Liam ShielsHAWESS77MCG114910020091

Draftstars – $25,000 Cats vs Crows

Moneyball – $7,000 Cats vs Crows

Scott Selwood’s price on Draftstars has shifted upwards again and now sits at $15,600 which is $5,350 more than at the start of the season. This makes him more expensive than his brother Joel, Matt Crouch, Rory Laird, etc. He’s been great in his two games this season averaging 17 tackles which is the concerning factor for us at this price as this accounts for 57% of his daily fantasy score. We think there is better value to be had with less downside risk on Draftstars and recommend you only look at him on Moneyball at $6,100 where he is great value.

Jake Kelly is a cheap defender on Moneyball at $4,900 who keeps on getting the job done. Over his last three games he’s averaged 72.7 daily fantasy points which puts him at a bargain 14.84x his salary. In fact, since round 3, ignoring his injury affected 19 vs Essendon, he’s returned better than 12x salary on all but one occasion. He’s considerably more expensive comparatively on Draftstars at $9,550 but still presents enough value that he needs to be considered.

Joel Selwood’s ($9,600 MB, $15,350 DS) form at Simonds Stadium is staggering, since Round 18 2015 he has averaged 116.8 daily fantasy points over 13 games with only two scores below 100 with a 91 vs the Western Bulldogs and a 95 vs Sydney. Add that to his form vs Adelaide since the start of 2014 with scores of 132, 140, 82 & 106 we expect him to provide coaches with value once again.


Draftstars – $1,000 Suns vs Eagles

Moneyball – $1,500 Suns vs Eagles

Nathan Vardy ($6,000 MB, $9,900 DS) has been a great value play of late with scores of 86, 78 & 81 over the last three weeks. Last week the Eagles brought in Petrie to help out in the ruck but Vardy did the majority of the centre bounce work and around the ground stoppages. With Josh Kennedy missing this week we expect that Petrie will have to spend considerable time up forward once again leaving the majority of the ruck work to Vardy meaning he should be able to emulate his form of the last few weeks.

In both Draftstars and Moneyball you are able to play both number 1 rucks in this game and some serious consideration should be given to it. Jarrod Witts predominantly rucks solo for the Suns with very little assistance from Peter Wright. He hasn’t dropped below 96 in his last three rounds (yes, one of those was against the depleted ruck stocks at Melbourne) and for $7,400 MB and $12,800 DS you would struggle to find similar value elsewhere on this slate.

Elliot Yeo ($9,500 MB, $13,450 DS) has really stepped up his game this year. Like most of the Eagles he struggles away from home with a Home average of 120 (5x 100’s from 5 games) and an Away average of 96 (2x 100’s from 5 games) but the Gold Coast is not Victoria where his average this year drops even further to 89 from 4 games. Yeo scored 124 when he travelled to South Australia earlier this year and we expect the Eagles to come out firing against the Suns to put their season back on track, giving Yeo an excellent opportunity to score well.

201718Elliot YeoWCECOLL97ES157812031288
201716Elliot YeoWCEPORT86DS166500022084
201715Elliot YeoWCEWB78ES122800053185
201714Elliot YeoWCEMELB87DS1041200060189
201713Elliot YeoWCEGEEL98DS154702070191
201711Elliot YeoWCEGCFC106MS166630031183
201710Elliot YeoWCEGWS118DS1581600041086
20179Elliot YeoWCEESS81ES145500041191
20178Elliot YeoWCEWB110DS1881100031192
20177Elliot YeoWCEPORT124AO2010710032087
20176Elliot YeoWCEFRE152DS2414800061189
20175Elliot YeoWCEHAW73MCG116500060479
20174Elliot YeoWCESYD116DS18111100013092
20173Elliot YeoWCERICH81MCG134701051290
20172Elliot YeoWCESTK103DS1713800000182
20171Elliot YeoWCENMFC120ES16101021021086

Draftstars – $1,000 Giants vs Bombers

Moneyball – $1,500 Giants vs Bombers

We recommended him last week and he delivered the goods and we’ll recommend him again. Matthew Kennedy is getting his opportunity with all the injuries at GWS, he came back in last week and scored a healthy 93 points which backed up his Round 7 score of 93 points before he was omitted. There is some risk as he is only playing mid to high 60% game time but at $5,800 on Moneyball he should deliver value to coaches. More expensive on Draftstars at $9,600 but he should still be considered.

There has been a lot of talk this week on SEN that Lachie Whitfield may not be at the Giants next year and instead will be moving to Victoria to play on the wide open expanses of the MCG. Well if that is true then he has an opportunity this week to add some dollars to that next contract by putting up big numbers against Essendon. Priced at $7,600 on Moneyball and $12,750 on Draftstars, anything above 90 daily fantasy points would make coaches happy and we expect that he should be able to deliver this weekend back at home against the Bombers.

Leuenberger didn’t get up this week as expected and as such we have a great value play in the ruck with Tom Bellchambers currently sitting at $5,500 on Moneyball. His lowest score this year of 74 was 13.5x salary which coaches would take any day of the week and as such we expect him to be very highly owned across multiple slates. He’s not quite as great value on Draftstars at $10,950 but you’ll need to determine whether paying the extra $2,100 for Shane Mumford is worth it?

Draftstars – $5,000 Kangaroos vs Tigers

Moneyball – $1,500 Kangaroos vs Tigers

Luke McDonald ($10,900 DS, $6,900 MB) is getting more midfield time this year as the Kangaroos try to rebuild without bottoming out. Over the last three weeks he’s been supplementing his disposals with an average of 8 tackles, which is a drastic increase from his historical tackle numbers. If he can keep this up then we don’t see why he can’t be pushing that 100 point barrier that he has been around the last fortnight with scores of 97 & 117.

Jack Ziebell is one of the more consistent performers in this match from a daily fantasy perspective with a consistency metric of 0.1921. He’s topped the hundred mark each of the last three weeks and comes at a discount to the premium midfielders at a price of $8,900 on Moneyball and $14,500 on Draftstars. He’s topped 92 4 out of the last 5 times these teams have met with a high score 109.

201717Jack ZiebellNMFCPORT89AO114500082072
201716Jack ZiebellNMFCFRE120ES1641211080177
201715Jack ZiebellNMFCGCFC62MS112800043481
201714Jack ZiebellNMFCWB90ES113700091183
201713Jack ZiebellNMFCSTK110ES175710072282
201711Jack ZiebellNMFCRICH83ES160800052186
201710Jack ZiebellNMFCCARL114ES1451501071177
20179Jack ZiebellNMFCMELB103MCG165411070176
20178Jack ZiebellNMFCSYD113ES11211010123081
20177Jack ZiebellNMFCADEL88BA162310052087
20176Jack ZiebellNMFCGCFC94ES1261201051280
20175Jack ZiebellNMFCFRE56DS103700030372
20174Jack ZiebellNMFCWB96ES1751010010078
20173Jack ZiebellNMFCGWS105BA1351510051280
20172Jack ZiebellNMFCGEEL73ES113301072277
20171Jack ZiebellNMFCWCE103ES1711410051271

He’s no doubt going to have his doubters after a subpar effort last week (which is a great thing in daily fantasy because it pushes players ownership down) but Ben Cunnington ($12,000 DS, $7,500 MB) is too cheap for the potential output that he can have. Heading into round 10 his form was strong with a three game average of 102, he only managed 50 against Carlton but he’s shown earlier in the season that he can bounce back quickly producing 112 vs Adelaide after scoring 41 vs Gold Coast the week before.

201718Ben CunningtonNMFCESS61ES92900040274
201717Ben CunningtonNMFCPORT128AO1451900084183
201716Ben CunningtonNMFCFRE94ES712101081276
201714Ben CunningtonNMFCWB92ES1221621041475
201713Ben CunningtonNMFCSTK99ES642600050173
201711Ben CunningtonNMFCRICH50ES511501010173
201710Ben CunningtonNMFCCARL50ES501200041267
20179Ben CunningtonNMFCMELB89MCG1131510041268
20178Ben CunningtonNMFCSYD105ES1031810060082
20177Ben CunningtonNMFCADEL112BA1411520061078
20176Ben CunningtonNMFCGCFC41ES30900050271
20175Ben CunningtonNMFCFRE91DS932010051479
20174Ben CunningtonNMFCWB111ES1062300041071
20173Ben CunningtonNMFCGWS77BA631500050069
20172Ben CunningtonNMFCGEEL98ES732100071176

Draftstars – $25,000 Dockers vs Magpies

Moneyball – $2,000 Dockers vs Magpies

Matt Scharenberg is still $3,900 on Moneyball, enough said, play him. He’s moved up $2,700 to $9,150 on Draftstars which means he’s in the conversation for selection depending on your team structure but by no means is he a must play.

After a poor showing last week against the Crows the Dockers head back home to Domain Stadium and as such we expect Michael Walters ($7,500 MB, $12,550 DS) to bounce back. Last week he only managed 38 in the wet but he had scores of 88, 137 & 118 heading into that matchup.

201718Michael WaltersFREHAW39DS82200023266
201717Michael WaltersFREWCE70DS101421043179
201716Michael WaltersFRENMFC116ES157530052080
201715Michael WaltersFRESTK145DS2161162025387
201714Michael WaltersFREGEEL122SS1671221043186
201712Michael WaltersFREBL111G1810311041192
201711Michael WaltersFRECOLL59DS1131100010388
201710Michael WaltersFREADEL38AO51600041377
20179Michael WaltersFRECARL118DS1731032045185
20178Michael WaltersFRERICH137MCG1971903042075
20177Michael WaltersFREESS88DS941700051279
20176Michael WaltersFREWCE37DS53800000179
20175Michael WaltersFRENMFC35DS55400000187
20174Michael WaltersFREMELB78MCG135710031380
20173Michael WaltersFREWB65DS93331010083
20172Michael WaltersFREPORT60AO115503011286
20171Michael WaltersFREGEEL35DS52310011189

Luke Ryan is going to be heavily owned in this game priced at $3,500 on Moneyball and $6,400 on Draftstars. He’s been in great form in the WAFL of late for the Peel Thunder with scores of 73, 89, 111 and 114 since coming back into the side in round 7.

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