Before we delve into the individual games, coaches can utilise our stats tables for both Draftstars and Moneyball to help unearth value plays each week. We also have detailed gamelogs going back as far as 2014 and season data for every player on dedicated team pages. Researching historical performance has never been easier. All stats broken down below have come direct from resources on this site.
Unlike other sites offering up tips, projections and other recommendations, here at DFS Australia we believe it important to take a step back and put our money where our mouth is by reviewing the previous week’s ‘By The Numbers’ to see how they faired. For those of you interested in seeing how they went then click on the drop down below to uncover the results in tabular form. Where information is missing we expressly indicated that we liked them only on one platform and not the other.
DS Result and MB Result are solely based on the player’s score versus price which has been calculated as value. This value is effectively a multiple of the players salary and a common term in daily fantasy sport. We’ve given our selections a tick when their value is above the mean + 1x standard deviation, a cross when the value is below the mean – 1x standard deviation and a question mark for average when falling in between. (Standard deviation and mean are based on data heading into round 9.)
|Tom T Lynch||119||FWD||11600||10.26|
2017 Daily Fantasy Statistical Summary by Team
Last updated on 2017-06-12 15:02:22 AWST
We don’t usually like targeting key forwards, especially when the games aren’t expected to be blowouts but Charlie Dixon ($7,400 MB, $12,300 DS) has been in great form of late averaging 112 fantasy points over the last three games with two scores over 120. The bookies have the Power going down against the Cats but they still expect Port to score 13 or 14 goals which will be enough for Dixon to bag a few for himself. The Cats haven’t had a big bag scored against them yet this season but big Charlie has shown of late that he can score heavily in daily fantasy without relying on goals averaging 9 marks a game and 20 touches over his recent run of good form.
Geelong’s fast pace game plan is conducive to giving up daily fantasy points to their opposition and this shows with them up towards the top of the ‘fantasy points against’ metric. One value play who is in great touch of late and should be able to capitalise in the midfield is Karl Amon ($6,700 MB, $11,250 DS). He has a low score of 90 in his last three matches while averaging 24 disposals across that time frame.
The term arbitrage comes to mind when considering Scott Selwood this week. Arbitrage is defined as “the simultaneous buying and selling of commodities in different markets to take advantage of differing prices for the same asset”. Draftstars ($15,150) have raised his price considerably after his season debut of 119 last week while he stays dormant on Moneyball at $6,100 thanks to their pricing structure requiring 3 games to be played prior to changing salaries. Selwood has played 31 games since the start of 2014 with only 7 of those being daily fantasy 100’s. Based on this we’ll be looking to play him on Moneyball as he presents too good value to ignore but we’ll fade him on Draftstars at his excessive salary and expect others to push up his ownership values.
The bookies expect a blowout here to the Swans after their recent form reversal and because of this we look towards Tom Papley as our first value play. Tom has scored 2 goals in three of his last four games along with averaging 17.5 disposals (at a healthy 1.92:1 kick to handball ratio), 6.3 marks and 89.3 daily fantasy points. At $10,450 on Draftstars he’s probably underpriced by about $2,000 based on that form. He presents similar value on Moneyball at $6,400.
The fact Zak Jones is only $9,700 on Draftstars is staggering, he’s the only player in the top 21 Hawks/Swans by 2017 average to be under the $10,000 mark. He’s had two scores in the 50’s this year including a 59 last week against St Kilda from 20 disposals although 14 were handballs which when looking at his season so far is an anomaly and we expect him to get his kick to handball ratio back on the right side of the ledger this week. He’s had 4 scores of over 90 from 9 games this year and with the Hawks being one of the easiest sides to score fantasy points against we expect him to bounce back this week. We feel he is fair value on Moneyball at $7,000.
There has been a lot of talk this week about Tom Mitchell’s 50 disposal match in round 9 and Draftstars seem to have jumped aboard the hype train by jetting his salary up to $19,000, yes, you read that right. We aren’t brave enough to fork out that kind of cash in the AFL arena (this isn’t NBA and this isn’t Russell Westbrook) for someone who scored between 115 and 136 between rounds 1 and 8 even if it is against his old side and at a ground he scored 163 at in 2015 and 2016. In Moneyball though we are all for splashing out $11,400 to be buying his attractive floor of 115 with considerable upside.
Tom Boyd ($10,050 DS, $6,200 MB) continues to play as the Bulldogs number 1 ruckman averaging 33.5 HO’s over the last fortnight. Ignoring his injury affected 9 points against North in round 4 he’s averaging 70.1 daily fantasy points on the season, with an average of 91.7 over his last three including two scores of 95+. The Bulldogs have brought in Tim English for his first game which will take some centre square time away from Boyd but we don’t expect Beveridge to ruck English for too long in his first game but rather rest him forward for significant periods after both Cloke and Redpath were omitted this week.
A player we’ve used here at DFS Australia from time to time to good effect is Blake Acres and he’s nicely priced here at $11,100 on Draftstars, he’s more expensive on Moneyball at $7,600 and therefore a little less attractive but should still be considered. He’s had a low score this season of 68 daily fantasy points with 5 of his 8 games going for over 80, including 2x 100’s in the past three weeks and at Etihad none the less. He can sometimes butcher the ball which can be frustrating for Alan Richardson but who cares in daily fantasy right?
Unusually, Draftstars have not hiked their price on Mitch Wallis after his season debut 97 last week. He’s still very much in the value mix this week at $12,150 on Draftstars and $7,300 on Moneyball. The Bulldogs haven’t had too much consistency this year with their previously high scoring midfielders with regards to daily fantasy production (Bontempelli and Macrae excluded) so taking Wallis over similar priced mids like Hunter/Picken may be an option. Buyer beware though, he’s expected to be highly owned.
He’s back and we’ll be on board Alex Neal-Bullen from the get go. He was in scintillating form earlier in the year which caused a significant amount of the season long fantasy community to trade him in only for Simon Goodwin to drop him after a disappointing 31 in round 6 against Essendon. We’d recommend people look past that game and focus on the 5 weeks leading up to that where he scored 110, 60, 141, 95 & 91 for an average of 99.4. At $10,450 on Draftstars and $6,500 on Moneyball you will struggle to buy that type of expected production elsewhere.
What’s becoming a trend is targeting the ruckman opposing Melbourne’s depleted ruck stocks. This week it is the former Magpie Jarrod Witts. He pretty much just about rucks solo in this lineup with only minimal chop out from Peter Wright. He’s been a little up and down this year with a couple of scores in the 60’s and two scores of over 100, but listen to these scores for rucks playing vs the Demons the last four weeks since Gawn/Spencer went down – Bellchambers 91 – McEvoy 124, Jacobs 132, Goldstein 148. Enough said.
Bit of a broken record here from previous weeks but Cam Pedersen’s ($12,600 DS, $6,800 MB) production is just too hard to ignore. Since coming back in the side to help out in the ruck he’s played four games for a low score of 94, his season high came last week against the Kangaroos with 120. He’s not going to win lots of hitouts but it’s his mobility around the ground (averaging 16.5 disposals and 4.8 marks) and ability to push forward (7 goals total) that makes him an attractive daily fantasy option. He’s also averaged 6 tackles a game over his last three which is a huge bonus. With Gawn due back in the coming weeks we’ll only have this bargain play for a few more weeks, make sure you utilise him.
Essendon have recalled Tom Bellchambers ($5,500 MB, $10,600) for his second game this season to cover for the loss of Leuenberger. In his only game this year he managed 91 daily fantasy points against the Demons in round 6. He comes up against Toby Nankervis here who is in good form but Bellchambers has had back to back hundreds (103, 138) in the VFL in the past fortnight kicking 9 goals in that time frame. Based on the salary saving over Nankervis you may want to consider him for your team.
Michael Hurley ($12,300 DS, $8,100 MB) just continues getting it done. Hasn’t scored below 94 in the last 5 weeks with three of those scores being 100 plus. Essendon love getting the ball in his hands as that general off half back and he’s an elite intercept mark too meaning he should add comfortably to the 39 marks he’s accrued in the last four weeks. He’s the most consistent defender in this match with a variance rating of 0.1727 so make sure he’s in your plans.
Jayden Short ($5,600 MB, $9,600 DS) has some risk associated to him but he’s trending in the right direction as his scores below show. He’s built his daily fantasy scores consistently from round 3 (27) through to round 9 (88) and over the last three weeks has been going at 13.27x on Moneyball and 7.74x on Draftstars. Some people might be more interested in David Myers at his cheaper price point, however, we have concerns about his ceiling based on the fact that he’s only played mid 60% game time the last fortnight.
The bookies have the Crows as hot favourites with an expected high score by the top of the table side and as such you’ll do worse than considering the captain Taylor Walker at this price of $10,150 on Draftstars. His for at Adelaide oval this year has been great, kicking 4 or more goals in wins. He’s fair value on Moneyball at $7,200 but if the bookies are to be believed don’t be surprised to get a healthy return on your outlay there too.
Michael Walters‘ price has increased faster on Draftstars ($13,600) than on Moneyball ($7,200) however his recent form in the midfield has been outstanding. He’s had 88, 137 and 118 daily fantasy points in his last three and the changes Fremantle have made to the side this week shouldn’t affect his midfield time.
Every man and his dog is going to be on the ex-basketballer Hugh Greenwood but it would be irresponsible of me not to recommend him here. The Crows hierarchy have come out this week and said he will get more midfield time this round after playing predominantly forward last week. We don’t expect him to get 93 like against the Lions but if he brings the tackle pressure like he did last week he’ll be a huge bargain at $3,800 on Moneyball. Some consideration will need to be given to what sort of value he presents on Draftstars after they hiked his price to $11,150.
Ryan Lester has been the best value play over the last 3 weeks for these two sides, with all the injuries to key midfielders for the Lions, Lester has averaged 95.7 in that time frame. That is comprised of scores of 94, 106 & 87, while averaging 20 disposals. At $6,700 on Moneyball and $11,050 on Draftstars we recommend you spend some time considering him.
The Magpies are expected to be convincing winners over the Lions and that means plenty of goals for the Magpies forwards, including Jamie Elliott. Since coming back from injury he’s been pretty steady, especially with an average of 86.3 over his last three but he’s primed for a break out game and this matchup has all the right components for that to happen. He’ll only set you back $6,100 on Moneyball and $11,400 on Draftstars, values that we expect to increase next week.
Matthew Scharenburg ($7,500 DS, $3,900 MB), this guy has been smashing the door down in the VFL of late to get a game and Nathan Buckley has been making him wait. However, he’s in this week on the back of scores in the VFL this year of 75, 81, 101, 137, 109, 147. Don’t expect those kind of scores in the AFL in his first game back since 2015 but he should deliver enough to be a great value play. We expect him to be highly owned.
Marc Murphy is better value on Draftstars at $14,700 than on Moneyball at $10,100 but you aren’t always looking for value at the premium price range but a healthy floor and that’s exactly what Murphy has. he’s played 9 games this year for 8 hundreds with a low score of 97 against Port in round 5. His two previous games this year at Etihad have gone for 120+. On Draftstars he’s at a slight discount to other premium plays in Bryce Gibbs and Patrick Cripps which is an added bonus.
Caleb Marchbank had a down game last week in the wet over at Domain Stadium but that was to be expected when you consider his daily fantasy game is built on the foundation of marking the ball. This week he plays under the roof at Etihad and we expect him to get back towards his season average of 77.7 and above which makes his $6,200 MB and $9,550 DS salaries great value. He’s the most consistent player in this match with a variance metric value of 0.0987 which means he is a must have for head-to-heads and double-ups.
Ben Cunnington has no doubt burnt daily fantasy coaches on more than one occasion but his form just can’t be ignored. He’s priced in that middle of the range pack at $7,600 MB and $12,550 DS which means he’s fighting for a spot in your side with a number of other players but in the last 6 weeks he’s scored 3 hundreds, had scores of 89 & 91 and then bottomed out once for a score of 41. He’s risky but at his price there is great upside to be had.
The Eagles return to Domain Stadium this week where they are a completely different side compared to on the road, particularly in Melbourne. One player that seems to play better at home is Andrew Gaff ($14,600 DS ,$9,500 MB), his form this year at Domain Stadium is great with a low of 97 and a 146 during round 8 vs the Bulldogs. He’s the third most expensive player on both platforms for this game but well worth it.
Matthew Kennedy is a somewhat risky selection but prior to being dropped he was averaging 78.3 over his last three. If he can muster a similar score this week he’s great value at $9,050 DS & $5,600 MB. His time on ground is a worry as he predominantly only plays approximately 60-65% but if this increases we could see a nice return on outlay.
Matt de Boer is named on a wing and he returns to Domain Stadium where he previously played for the Fremantle Dockers. He had his first hitout for his new club last week and returned a respectable 76, we expect a similar type of output this week with possible upside which makes him a great value play for $10,500 DS and $5,700 MB.